Poisson Model
Goal probability from historical Poisson distributions for each team and league.
We use AI models, xG analysis and Poisson distributions to highlight the highest-value matches. Our team shares knowledge and skills so we can all win together.
FixTips combines the best into one model. Many signal sources, one coherent prediction.
Goal probability from historical Poisson distributions for each team and league.
Ensemble models learn from thousands of variables and update weights in real time.
We compare our probabilities with the market consensus and highlight matches where our model sees an edge.
We analyse more than stats — form, league pace, xG, pressing and squad rotation. Mental signals and hidden factors: micro-injuries, travel, press conferences and media.
Poisson
xG Analysis
Team Form
Head to Head
League Trends
Injuries
The FixTips engine combines data from 120+ leagues — from xG and team form to injuries, referees and table context. Every signal passes through Poisson scoring, ML layers and a market-edge filter.
Models are trained on historical results and verified out-of-sample. We do not publish analyses without a demonstrated model edge over the market consensus.
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